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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad
portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough, currently moving onshore across the Pacific
Northwest, is forecast to deepen over the next 24 hours as it shifts
into the inter-mountain West. A southern stream perturbation is
depicted in latest guidance transversing the southern Plains into
the Texarkana region by early evening. At the surface, a
consolidating cyclone in the High Plains will deepen as it shifts
into the northern Plains. A stationary boundary across the southern
CONUS will rapidly mix northward in response to the deepening low,
establishing a broad warm sector from the northwest Gulf Coast into
the central Plains and parts of the Midwest by late afternoon. A
sharpening dryline along draped south through the Plains will be
overtaken by a cold front through the evening and overnight hours. 

...Central Plains...
Thunderstorm initiation appears likely across the NE/SD/IA tri-state
region by mid to late afternoon in the vicinity of the triple point
and along the dryline. Although boundary-layer moisture should be
modest co*pared to locations further south, steep lapse rates aloft
will support adequate buoyancy for mature convection. Forecast
soundings across the region show elongated hodographs with ample
veering in the lowest 3 km. This kinematic environment will support
supercells given storm motion vectors off the initiating boundary.
All hazards are possible, including the potential for strong
tornadoes given forecast ESRH values between 250-300 m2/s2. A
transition to primarily linear storm mode (with an increasing wind
threat) is expected by the evening hours as the cold front overtakes
the dryline across southeast NE and northwest KS. Strong low-level
shear ahead of the line will maintain the potential for embedded
circulations at shifts into southern IA/northwest MO overnight.

...Eastern KS into Central OK...
The severe weather threat appears conditional for tomorrow afternoon
across eastern KS into central/eastern OK. Latest solutions struggle
to show a strong convective signal along the dryline, which is
likely due to a co*bination of factors. The strongest synoptic
forcing for ascent will be displaced well to the north across the
central to northern Plains, and weak subsidence behind a southern
stream upper trough may be overspreading the region by peak heating.
Despite this, some solutions hint that given sufficient daytime
heating behind the wave, convergence along the dryline may be
adequate for a few isolated cells within a minimally capped
environment. The thermodynamic/kinematic environment across
OK/southern KS will be supportive of supercells if convection can
develop. While this potential is noted, uncertainty is too high to
warrant 10% tornado probabilities at this time. 

...North/Central TX to AR/LA...
The southern shortwave trough is expected to move over central TX
and into western LA during the afternoon hours. This broad scale
ascent will bolster antecedent lift from low-level warm/moist
advection over east TX into western AR/LA. Limited inhibition in
place should result is quasi-discrete cells to storm clusters across
the region. A few of these may be sufficiently organized to support
a wind/hail risk, and a low-level helicity within the warm advection
regime will support at least a low-end tornado risk. The severe
potential should be regionally maximized across central TX where
storms developing along the dryline behind the leading wave will
likely be more isolated and have a higher probability of maintaining
discrete modes.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/11/2022