SPC Apr 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
[html]SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into
Monday night from parts of northeast Texas to the Mid-South and
vicinity, with the greatest threat expected over parts of Arkansas.
Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all
appear possible.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the
upper Great Lakes region into eastern Canada today, as a longwave
trough begins to deepen over the western CONUS. At the surface, a
weak cold front is forecast to move slowly southward from the Ozark
Plateau into portions of the Midwest, while the western portion of
the front will stall out and begin lifting northward late tonight
across the southern Plains in response to a deepening cyclone near
the CO Front Range.
...Arkansas and adjacent portions of northeast TX/southeast OK...Mid
South...and OH Valley...
Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across
parts of northern AR and southern MO, mainly along and north of a
convectively reinforced surface boundary. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
and effective shear of 40+ kt will support a threat of isolated hail
and strong wind gusts with any elevated clusters through the
morning. One or more clusters may move into portions of western TN
and lower OH Valley through the day with a continued threat of
isolated wind/hail.
The outflow boundary will likely beco*e nearly stationary by late
afternoon somewhere from eastern OK into central/northern AR. The
coverage and timing of any redevelopment near the outflow boundary
remains somewhat uncertain at this time, due to generally subtle
large-scale ascent across the region. However, the environment will
beco*e conditionally favorable for supercells, as moderate to
locally strong instability develops with diurnal heating and
effective shear remains in the 40-50 kt range. It appears plausible
that a few supercells will develop by late afternoon/early evening
within a modest warm-advection regime across western into northern
AR, and potentially into far southeast OK/northeast TX. Locally
backed flow near the surface boundary will support a tornado threat,
in addition to the risk of hail (potentially significant) and
locally damaging wind gusts.
...Parts of central/north TX...
A conditionally favorable environment for supercells will be in
place along and east of a dryline into parts of central and north TX
this afternoon/evening. The potential for initiation remains highly
uncertain, however, with large-scale ascent expected to be
negligible across the region. Should initiation occur, a conditional
risk of very large hail and locally severe wind gusts will be
present with any sustained supercell.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/11/2022
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Source: SPC Apr 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html)