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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur beginning late Tuesday
afternoon and continuing through Tuesday night across a broad
portion of the southern/central Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper trough over the western CONUS will advance
east-northeastward on Tuesday, reaching the northern/central High
Plains by late Tuesday night. A low-amplitude, southern-stream
shortwave trough initially over northeast Mexico and the lower Rio
Grande Valley will move northeastward across the TX Coastal Plain
through Tuesday afternoon, and it should eventually reach the lower
MS Valley Tuesday night.

A deep surface low centered over northeastern CO and the western NE
Panhandle Tuesday morning is forecast to develop generally eastward
across NE through the day. This low should then further develop
east-northeastward across parts of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
A dryline extending southward from this low across much of the
central/southern Plains will sharpen through late Tuesday afternoon.
A cold front attendant to the low is expected to sweep
east-southeastward over much of the northern/central Plains and
parts of the mid MO Valley Tuesday evening/night. A strong cap
associated with an EML is expected to inhibit convective initiation
along the dryline through much of the day.

...Southern/Central Plains Tuesday Afternoon/Evening...
As the upper trough approaches and the surface low develops
eastward, a pronounced low-level mass response will usher rapid
low-level moisture return northward across the southern/central
Plains and lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. Most guidance indicates
that at least low to mid 60s surface dewpoints will be in place to
the east of the dryline across these region by late Tuesday
afternoon. Diurnal heating of this moist airmass along with the
presence of very steep mid-level lapse rates associated with the EML
will likely foster moderate to strong instability along/east of the
dryline extending from parts of central TX to east-central KS.
MLCAPE of 2500-4000+ J/kg appears probable by peak afternoon
heating. Mid-level southwesterly winds are expected to gradually
increase during the day, and around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear
should be present along much of the dryline by late Tuesday
afternoon. This should be sufficient for organized storms, including
supercells.

The primary uncertainty remains how many thunderstorms will initiate
along the length of the dryline late Tuesday afternoon into the
early evening, as mid-level height falls/ascent preceding the upper
trough will remain fairly modest. Lingering convective inhibition
may also hinder coverage to some extent. Even with these
uncertainties, it appears probable that isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will form along the dryline from parts of central TX
northward into central/eastern KS. Any thunderstorms that can
develop in this very favorable thermodynamic environment will likely
beco*e severe quickly. Given the large reservoir of buoyancy
available, supercells will pose a threat for very large hail (2+
inches), along with damaging winds as they develop eastward through
the evening. A southerly low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Tuesday evening across this region, and a corresponding increase in
low-level shear is anticipated. Any supercells that persist will be
capable of producing tornadoes. With the strength of the low-level
shear that is forecast, a strong tornado appears possible.

...Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley Tuesday
Evening/Night...
Low-level moisture will return northward ahead of the surface low
and east of the dryline across eastern KS into far eastern NE and
much of IA/MO by Tuesday evening. Surface dewpoints may only reach
into the upper 50s to low 60s with northward extent into IA. Even
with this slightly more limited moisture, stronger ascent/low-level
convergence ahead of the surface low will likely aid thunderstorm
development by Tuesday evening. Confidence is greater in convection
forming over parts of eastern NE into IA in this time frame.

A south-southwesterly low-level jet will rapidly strengthen to
50-60+ kt around 00-03Z. Both low-level and deep-layer shear appear
very supportive of supercells. Any thunderstorms that can remain
discrete will pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes.
Effective SRH potentially exceeding 400 m2/s2 across IA Tuesday
evening and the strength of the low-level jet suggest a threat for a
couple of strong tornadoes. Have expanded the Enhanced Risk
northward into more of IA to account for this strong tornado
potential. Greater tornado probabilities may be needed across this
area if confidence increases that multiple supercells will develop.
Otherwise, a line of forced convection should develop along the cold
front Tuesday night and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds and
tornadoes as it moves southeastward across eastern KS and MO into
early Wednesday morning. Isolated large hail may also occur north of
the warm front across parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Texas Coastal Plain into the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday
Afternoon/Evening...
As the southern-stream shortwave trough moves over the TX Coastal
Plain Tuesday, thunderstorms should develop across parts of the
upper TX Coast/east TX into LA. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level
airmass will contribute to the development of MLCAPE generally
ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level
southwesterly winds around 40-50 kt will likely support updraft
organization, and a mix of multicells and supercells may develop.
These thunderstorms will pose a threat for large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes as they spread east-northeastward
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

...ArkLaTex into the Ozarks and Mid-South Tuesday Night...
Depending on the evolution of thunderstorms across the southern
Plains, an isolated severe threat may persist Tuesday night over
parts of the ArkLaTex, Ozarks, and perhaps the Mid-South. A 50+ kt
south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to overspread these
regions in this time frame, and rich low-level moisture should
support enough instability to maintain surface-based thunderstorms.
Any convection that can persist or form in this regime would pose a
threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, as low-level
and deep-layer shear appear more than sufficient for supercells.

..Gleason.. 04/11/2022