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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts
of northeastern Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and Missouri. Large
hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main threats.

...Oklahoma to southeast Kansas/Ozarks...
Gradual height falls are expected toward the region on the southern
periphery of an upper-level trough shifting eastward from the
northern High Plains toward the Upper Midwest. Primary surface
cyclogenesis will take place from Kansas toward the Upper Midwest as
a cold front advances southeastward toward the Ozarks/central
Oklahoma through tonight, while a dryline will extend from a
secondary surface low southward across western North
Texas/west-central Texas around peak heating.

Modest-caliber moisture return will occur across the eastern halves
of Texas/Oklahoma into the Ozarks and Middle Mississippi Valley,
with surface dewpoints rising into the 50s F to locally near 60 F
across the warm sector. A stout elevated mixed layer will likely
inhibit surface-based thunderstorm initiation for much of the day,
but MLCAPE will steadily increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range as
robust diurnal heating occurs beneath very steep mid-level lapse
rates. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient
deep-layer shear for storm organization, conditional upon
initiation. 

Isolated storm development cannot be entirely ruled out near the
dryline/triple point across west-central/southwest Oklahoma during
the late afternoon/early evening, but substantial MLCIN across the
warm sector is expected to limit this potential. A more probable
scenario will be for increasing post-sunset development across
north-central and especially northeast Oklahoma into far southeast
Kansas and the Missouri/Ozarks. This will be aided by a
strengthening low-level jet and warm advection, with much of this
development tending to be at least slightly elevated to the north of
the front. Regardless, moderate buoyancy and strong effective shear
will support some supercells capable of large hail. Locally damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will also be possible if any
cells sustain along the boundary. 

...Northern/central Texas...
Deep convective potential is still currently expected to remain
limited owing to factors such as persistent capping and only modest
convergence near the dryline, but it is conceivable that a couple of
storms could develop near the dryline late this afternoon. Such
development might be aided by a subtle mid-level impulse/speed max
over New Mexico early today. This region will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks/daytime trends to see if an addition of at least
low conditional-type severe probabilities are warranted given the
potentially unstable air mass that will be in place near/east of the
dryline.

..Guyer/Smith.. 04/10/2022