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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A substantial severe threat will continue on Day 4/Wednesday across
parts of the central/eastern CONUS. Large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes should occur.

...Day 4/Wednesday: East Texas/Oklahoma into the Mississippi
Valley/Midwest and Southeast...
The large-scale upper trough over the Plains Wednesday morning
should eject across the MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes through
the Day 4/Wednesday period. Differences remain in the details with
the placement and evolution of the upper low/trough. Even so, a cold
front attendant to a deep surface cyclone over the Upper Midwest
will sweep eastward across much of the lower/mid MS Valley and
Midwest Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Strong
low-level and deep-layer shear will acco*pany this frontal passage,
which will likely support a substantial organized severe
thunderstorm threat. It appears probable that rich low-level
moisture characterized by mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will
advance as far northward as parts of the mid MS Valley/lower OH
Valley. Sufficient instability should be present ahead of the cold
front to support surface-based thunderstorms.

Convection may be ongoing Wednesday morning over parts of the
Mid-South aided by strong low-level warm advection. Additional
scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. If some of this
convection can form ahead of the front, deep-layer shear would be
strong enough to support supercells. A more linear mode should also
develop along the front itself. All severe hazards, including large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur as this convection
sweeps eastward across the lower/mid MS Valley, Midwest, and parts
of the Southeast through Wednesday night. The 15% severe area has
been expanded eastward based on the consensus of latest model
guidance suggesting sufficient low-level moisture will be in place
over more of the Midwest, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday
evening/night to support surface-based thunderstorms. The 30% severe
area was extended northward and eastward into more of the lower/mid
MS Valley where confidence is greatest in scattered to numerous
discrete and linear convection Wednesday afternoon. 

...Day 5/Thursday - Day 8/Sunday...
An isolated/marginal severe threat may continue across parts of the
Southeast and eastern states on Day 5/Thursday as the cold front
continues eastward. However, low-level moisture appears fairly
modest, which should limit the instability available for robust
thunderstorms. Low-level moisture may attempt to return northward
across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast from Day
6/Friday into next weekend. Regardless, predictability in the
synoptic-scale patters across the CONUS appears low at this extended
time frame, and any areas of possible severe potential are too
uncertain to delineate at this time.