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Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur Tuesday evening and night
across a broad portion of the southern/central Plains into the
Mississippi Valley. Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough over the western CONUS Tuesday morning
will eject over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the
day. Although there are still some model differences in its
placement, this upper trough/low should be centered over the
northern/central Plains by Tuesday night. A low amplitude,
southern-stream shortwave trough should advance northeastward over
the TX Coastal Plain during the day. It should reach the lower MS
Valley Tuesday night.

At the surface, a deep lee cyclone over northeastern CO will develop
generally east-northeastward across the central Plains through
Tuesday evening, and it will continue eastward towards the Upper
Midwest Tuesday night. A sharp dryline will extend southward from
the surface low across the southern/central Plains. A cold front
attendant to the surface low will sweep south-southeastward over the
northern/central Plains Tuesday evening/night.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley...
A robust low-level mass response ahead of the ejecting upper trough
will encourage low-level moisture to surge quickly northward through
the period across the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS
Valley to the east of the dryline. Steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the Southwest/northern Mexico and southern High
Plains will overspread much of the warm sector. An associated
low-level cap will likely hinder convective development along most
of the length of the dryline through late Tuesday afternoon.
Eventually, modest mid-level height falls/ascent preceding the upper
trough should act in concert with strong diurnal heating along/near
the dryline circulation to aid convective initiation along the
dryline extending from central TX into parts of eastern KS. There is
still some uncertainty regarding overall thunderstorm coverage given
the modest ascent and possibly weak convective inhibition remaining.
Regardless, any thunderstorms that form in this regime will likely
beco*e severe quickly, as moderate to strong instability will exist
along with sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Very large
hail should occur with any discrete thunderstorms that can be
sustained, and tornadoes will also be possible.

Farther north across the central Plains into the mid MO Valley where
low-level moisture will not be quite as rich/deep, convective
initiation may be delayed until late Tuesday evening as the ascent
preceding the surface low overspreads this region. Still, this
region will have stronger mid-level winds and enough effective bulk
shear to support supercell structures with any cells that can form
along/ahead of the dryline and cold front. All severe hazards will
be a threat, including very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. A rapidly strengthening low-level jet Tuesday
evening/night will enhance the low-level shear, and a couple of
strong tornadoes may occur if thunderstorms can remain at least
semi-discrete. With time, convection may grow upscale into a squall
line Tuesday night and pose more of a severe/damaging wind threat
with eastward extent across IA into eastern KS and MO. Some elevated
hail may also occur to the north of the warm front given the steep
mid-level lapse rates that should be present.

Across the TX Coastal Plain into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley,
ascent associated with the southern-stream shortwave trough may
support isolated to scattered convective development Tuesday
afternoon. Deep-layer shear appears strong enough for organized
updrafts, and some severe threat should exist since rich low-level
moisture will be in place across these areas. It remains unclear
whether the convection that forms along the dryline will persist
Tuesday night across the ArkLaTex and Ozarks. Strong low-level shear
will be present along with sufficient low-level moisture to support
surface-based thunderstorms. At least an isolated severe threat may
continue across these regions Tuesday night into early Wednesday
morning, with all severe hazards possible.

..Gleason.. 04/10/2022