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Mesoscale Discussion 0746
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Areas affected...Far Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North
Dakota...West-central to South-central Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 211...

Valid 130012Z - 130215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 211 continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and tornado threat will continue over the
next couple of hours from far northeast South Dakota and southeast
North Dakota into west-central and south-central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Aberdeen
shows a severe synoptic-scale bowing line segment located from far
northeast South Dakota extending eastward and southward across
southwest Minnesota. The line is located to the northeast of a
maxima of strong instability, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in
the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The line of severe storms will continue
to move northeastward into a strengthening 50 to 60 knot low-level
jet. The jet was creating strong low-level shear, with 0-3 km storm
relative helicity at Minneapolis and Aberdeen above 300 m2/s2. This
co*bined with 50 to 60 knots of deep-layer shear will continue to be
favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next couple of hours.
The low-level jet will continue to increase in strength early this
evening, which will support a tornado threat with supercells and
bowing line segments. Also, the line was moving northeastward at 65
to 70 knots, which will be very favorable for damaging wind gusts.
Isolated wind gusts of over 70 knots will be possible ahead of the
more intense portions of the line.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44889558 43929519 43659446 44169363 45329364 46499474
            46929654 46869747 46549821 46069844 45659762 45339615
            44889558