Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WISCONSIN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected Friday
from the Upper Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains.  The
stronger storms will be capable of damaging gusts and hail.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low near the ND/Canadian border will move slowly
northward during the day as another low over the Southeast weakens. 
A weakening cold front is forecast to be located from the western
Great Lakes southwestward to the southern Great Plains by late
Friday afternoon.  The boundary will slowly sag east-southeast
through Saturday morning.  

...Western Great Lakes southwestward into the southern Great
Plains...
As the upper system shifts northward into Canada, a weakening cold
front is forecast to move slowly eastward across the Upper Great
Lakes, and southeastward across the Mid Mississippi
Valley/Ozarks/southern Plains.  Some residual clouds and weakening
storm activity may be present early Friday morning from eastern KS
northeastward to the IA/WI vicinity, but cloud breaks and strong
heating is expected to eventually ensue by the late morning.  Steep
lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will result in moderate to
strong destabilization from WI (2000 J/kg MLCAPE) into the southern
Great Plains (3000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Scattered storms appear most
likely near the WI/IA/northwest IL portion of the front with greater
uncertainty and lower storm coverage seemingly apparent farther
southwest from MO into KS/OK/TX.  

While locally vigorous updrafts are expected, flow aloft will remain
modest -- particularly with southward extent yielding primarily a
multicell storm mode capable of wind/hail with the strongest storms,
although a few supercells are possible from KS west-southwestward to
the TX Panhandle.  The severe risk will diminish during the evening
over much of the this broad region, but a cluster or two could
evolve/persist over the KS/OK/MO/AR border region during the evening
before subsiding late.

...Lower Mississippi Valley region...
No appreciable change in thinking with this forecast update as a
weak trough/convergence axis is progged to reside across the lower
Mississippi Valley area on Friday.  This --in conjunction with the
moist/moderately unstable airmass expected across the area-- will
support potential for afternoon storm development.

While flow aloft will remain weak, a northerly co*ponent aloft
--around the back side of the retrograding southeastern U.S. upper
low-- could allow some upscale/linear clustering of southward-moving
convection.  Assuming this organization occurs, strong/gusty winds
could occur in a few areas, along with a localized risk for
marginally severe hail.

..Smith.. 05/12/2022