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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Well-organized severe storms are expected to evolve from the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota southward into the central Plains Thursday. 
Very large hail and severe gusts are expected, along with potential
for a couple of tornadoes.

...Synopsis...
While an upper low retrogrades westward out of the western Atlantic
into the Southeast, a vigorous, increasingly negatively tilted
trough will advance rapidly northeastward from the Rockies
into/across the northern and central Plains Thursday.

A surface low initially over the central High Plains will deepen as
it moves into the Dakotas during the afternoon/evening before
reaching the ND/Canadian border by daybreak Friday and occluding.  A
warm front will advance northward across the upper Mississippi
Valley, while a cold front advances eastward across the northern and
central Plains through the period.

...Eastern Dakotas east to the Upper Mississippi Valley and south
into the central Great Plains...
Models continue to indicate early day storms over the Upper Great
Lakes with possible hail/wind potential with the stronger storms. 
Farther west, a capping inversion will likely delay additional
storms over the Great Plains through the early afternoon before
strengthening ascent/surface heating erode the cap.  Strong
southerly low-level flow will advect rich moisture northward as a
very unstable airmass develops prior to convective initiation
(2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE).  Increasing flow in the mid- to high-levels
will strongly favor storm organization in the form of supercells and
organized linear clusters.  Large to very large hail and tornadoes
are possible with supercells.  Mesoscale details regarding the
tornado threat are still a bit uncertain at this time, but the
tornado potential appears highest near the warm front/surface low. 
Forecast hodographs show some backing of mid-level flow indicative
of a transition to mostly a linear storm mode by early evening and
subsequent transition to mostly a threat for severe gusts while the
tornado risk lessens.  The aforementioned wind profile and a
strengthening LLJ will co*bine to promote additional storm coverage
and a coalescing of cold pools.  The risk for severe gusts will
likely continue through the evening and perhaps into the overnight
as the storm activity moves eastward towards the MS River late.

...Western portions of the southern Plains...
Isolated late-afternoon thunderstorm development will be possible
near a surface trough/dryline from the southwestern Kansas vicinity
south-southwestward to the Trans-Pecos region/Davis Mountains of
West Texas.  As a modestly moist boundary layer heats/mixes/deepens
through the day, local breaches of the cap will be possible,
allowing updrafts to utilize 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.  With ample
shear in place to support organized updrafts, and a deep mixed layer
to provide some evaporative downdraft enhancement, local risk for
hail and/or damaging gusts will be possible.  Storms should diminish
gradually through late evening.

...Lower MS Valley...
Model guidance is indicating scattered storms are possible Thursday
afternoon/early evening in between a large-scale mid-level gyre east
of FL and a mid-level ridge over the Arklatex.  Forecast soundings
show very warm temperatures with 70-72 F dewpoints supporting 3000
J/kg MLCAPE by mid afternoon.  Steep 0-2 km lapse rates and 1.6
inches PW will favor isolated microbursts with the stronger cores. 
As this activity moves south-southwest during the afternoon/early
evening as cold pool aggregation occurs, pockets of 45-60 mph gusts
capable of wind damage may occur.  This activity will likely weaken
by sunset.

..Smith.. 05/11/2022