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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022

Valid 111700Z - 121200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH
PLAINS...

The previous forecast remains valid with minor changes for the
latest guidance. The IsoDryT area was trimmed slightly westward to
better account for the initiation of dry thunderstorms in the
vicinity of the diffuse dryline across the southern High Plains. The
eastern edge of the Critical area was also adjusted to the west to
avoid greater precipitation chances farther east. Otherwise, please
see the previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/11/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Wed May 11 2022/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify and progress across the central
Rockies today, encouraging the development of surface lows in the
Four Corners region and across the central High Plains. The net
result will be widespread surface conditions conducive to
significant wildfire spread. Closer to the dryline in the southern
High Plains, a few lightning flashes may occur outside of storm
cores atop dry fuels to support fire ignitions. Meanwhile, a surface
low off of the coast of the Carolinas will drive dry northeasterly
surface flow across the central Florida Peninsula, promoting modest
wildfire spread potential.

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
As the surface low strengthens during the day and the boundary layer
mixes, widespread 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds
amid RH under 15 percent will occur across much of the Southwest
eastward to the Colorado Front Range. While fuels are modestly
receptive to fire spread from the Four Corners westward, 25-30 mph
sustained surface winds will co*pensate to support Critical
wildfire-spread potential. From central New Mexico into eastern
Colorado, 20-25 mph winds and RH under 10 percent in spots will
foster high-end Critical conditions, supporting rapid wildfire
growth.

A dryline is also expected to meander near the Colorado Front Range
into eastern New Mexico during the afternoon, serving as a forcing
mechanism for thunderstorm development. Some of the initial
thunderstorms may produce strikes away from narrow precipitation
cores into extremely dry fuel beds. In addition, efficient
evaporative cooling from higher-based storms, amid a very buoyant
environment, may also promote erratic surface wind gusts. Isolated
dry thunderstorm highlights have been maintained/expanded where the
greatest chance of dry strikes and subsequent erratic gusts are most
likely. Please view our convective outlook for more details on any
severe threat across the southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
By afternoon peak heating, northeasterly surface winds are expected
to peak into the 10-15 mph range for at least a few hours, when RH
drops to 25-35 percent. Elevated highlights have been maintained
where the aforementioned surface conditions will overlap the
longest, and where forecast fuel ERCs are expected to exceed the
95th percentile.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...