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Mesoscale Discussion 0717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Areas affected...TX South Plains/Northwest TX into western OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...201...

Valid 110350Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198, 201
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe wind threat will persist overnight, though a
gradual decreasing trend is expected with time.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS is ongoing from western OK into eastern portions
of the TX South Plains. The most intense portion of the line at
0330Z is southwest of Childress, in a region where a recent outflow
intersection occurred, with multiple 70+ mph gusts observed from the
West TX Mesonet in this area. Further north, the outflow has surged
rather far ahead of the convection across western OK, with wind
gusts in the 40-45 mph range noted thus far. 

Despite the presence of increasing MLCINH downstream, a 40-50 kt
low-level jet (noted on the KFDR VWP) will help to maintain this
QLCS for some period of time into the overnight hours. The greatest
near-term threat will likely reside from northwest TX into southwest
OK, where the embedded bowing segment near the aforementioned
outflow intersection will continue surging northeastward into a
strongly unstable environment. Later on, a gradual decrease in the
severe wind threat is expected into the early morning hours, though
some gusty winds may eventually spread east of WW 201 along a
weakening outflow.

..Dean.. 05/11/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   33440200 34739999 35369963 36549948 36569870 36059836
            35019817 33539888 33389914 33150065 33220180 33440200