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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across the southern
High Plains this evening. Hail and wind can be expected. A few
strong/severe storms will spread across the northern Great Lakes
region with an attendant threat for marginally severe hail and wind
gusts.

...Southern High Plains...

Large-scale ascent ahead of short-wave trough has overspread much of
the southern High Plains early this evening. Thunderstorms that
initiated near the dryline shortly after peak heating are now
congealing into a loosely organized southwest/northeast-oriented MCS
from near HOB-PVW-west of GAG. LLJ is beginning to increase across
the eastern TX Panhandle and this will prove favorable for continued
upscale growth as the co*plex begins to propagate east toward
western OK. Damaging winds appear likely with some of this
convection, along with some threat for hail.

...Great Lakes...

Large-scale height rises are occurring across the Great Lakes region
as the upper ridge builds north across the MS Valley/Midwest.
Lingering convection/isolated supercells that developed within warm
advection corridor have shifted into northeast WI into the eastern
UP of MI. As LLJ veers and weakens across this region it appears the
prospect for additional, robust convection may be waning a bit. Even
so, will maintain severe probabilities across this region for the
possibility for ongoing activity to gradually propagate a bit south
with time.

..Darrow.. 05/11/2022