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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast over parts of the
north-central states and over portions of the southern High Plains.

...Eastern SD/NE/IA/MN vicinity...
Water-vapor imagery midday Tuesday shows a mid-level disturbance
moving northeast across adjacent parts of northern Mexico/west
Texas/southeast NM.  This feature is forecast to move
north-northeast through the central Great Plains early Wednesday and
reach the SD/IA/NE/MN area by early Wednesday evening.  A reservoir
of rich low-level moisture (16-17 g/kg lowest 100 mb mean mixing
ratio) located over the central/southern Great Plains will advance
northward in tandem with a warm front forecast to move northward
from southeast NE into eastern SD.  Very steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates in association with a capping inversion/EML will overspread
the region during the day.  Model guidance indicates extreme
buoyancy (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) may materialize near the NE/SD/IA/MN
border region by mid afternoon.  The favorable timing of the
mid-level disturbance (30 meter 500 mb height falls) lends
confidence in storm development by late afternoon near the warm
front.  The parameter space according to some models denotes
high-end supercell potential but some of the explicit
simulated-storm model guidance indicates a messy convective mode not
necessarily congruent with the aforementioned near-storm environment
depiction by some models.  Therefore, opted to increase tornado
probabilities to 5-percent and introduce a significant hail area (2
inches in diameter or larger) to highlight higher-end supercell
potential.  By early evening, a strengthening southerly LLJ will
likely lead to upscale growth in the form of a cluster or two with
hail/wind beco*ing the primary threats before weakening late.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Eventual/weak height falls spreading into the High Plains -- focused
near a lee trough/dryline -- will result in isolated to scattered
late afternoon storm development.  Model guidance has trended to
greater convective coverage.  Very steep low-level lapse rates will
develop by the afternoon to the west of any residual outflow perhaps
lingering from late Tuesday night storm activity.  While modest
shear should generally limit storm organization to some degree,
multicell to occasional weakly rotating storms will likely evolve
locally.  Along with some risk for hail, locally damaging winds
could occur with the strongest storms.  Storms -- and associated
severe risk -- should diminish later in the evening as the boundary
layer diurnally stabilizes.

...Northeastern Wyoming/southeastern Montana eastward into the
adjacent western Dakotas...
As heights fall across the northern High Plains area -- particularly
into the second half of the period, isolated, high-based,
late-afternoon and evening thunderstorm development is expected. 
With a dry sub-cloud layer aiding evaporation, a stronger gust or
two will be possible.  Wind risk may spread eastward into portions
of the western Dakotas, particularly if local/upscale growth can
occur, allowing a cluster of storms to move eastward through the
evening.

..Smith.. 05/10/2022