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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA VICINITY EASTWARD ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Local risk for scattered severe storms is expected to evolve over
parts of the north-central U.S. Wednesday, with more isolated
hail/wind potential across the central and southern High Plains.

...Eastern South Dakota and vicinity across much of Minnesota...
As the western U.S. trough shifts across the Rockies Wednesday, weak
cyclonic disturbances in south-southwesterly upper-level flow 
across the Plains will gradually begin to erode the northwest fringe
of the upper ridge.

As this occurs, a warm front is forecast to shift northward across
the Mid Missouri Valley region through the day.  With gradual
increases in large-scale ascent -- associated with the
aforementioned upper disturbances -- focused near and just north of
the warm front, scattered afternoon storm development is expected,
most likely initially in the eastern South Dakota vicinity.

With moderate flow aloft across the region, veering and increasing
with height, expect storms to organize and beco*e locally severe. 
While tornado risk should remain limited to areas near the warm
front, hail/wind risk is evident.  Greatest wind risk would occur
assuming storms grow upscale linearly, as hinted at within a few of
the CAMs.  Risk will spread northeastward with time, across much of
Minnesota through the evening and into the overnight hours.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Eventual/weak height falls spreading into the High Plains -- focused
near a lee trough/dryline -- will result in widely scattered to
isolated afternoon storm development.  While modest shear should
generally limit storm organization to some degree, multicell to
occasional weakly rotating storms will likely evolve locally.  Along
with some risk for hail, locally damaging winds could occur with the
strongest storms.  Storms -- and associated severe risk -- should
diminish later in the evening as the boundary layer diurnally
stabilizes.

...Northeastern Wyoming/southeastern Montana eastward into the
adjacent western Dakotas...
As heights fall across the northern High Plains area -- particularly
into the second half of the period, isolated, high-based,
late-afternoon and evening thunderstorm development is expected. 
With a dry sub-cloud layer aiding evaporation, a stronger gust or
two will be possible.  Wind risk may spread eastward into portions
of the western Dakotas, particularly if local/upscale growth can
occur, allowing a cluster of storms to move eastward through the
evening.

..Goss.. 05/10/2022