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Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Areas affected...Western WI into far southeast MN

Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

Valid 100048Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, locally damaging wind, and a
tornado or two will continue this evening. Some weakening is
expected later tonight, and the need for downstream watch issuance
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 0045Z, several supercells are ongoing across western
WI into far southeast MN. Thus far, less-than-ideal low-level
moisture and storm interference have tended to limit the tornado
threat, though strong low-level shear/SRH (noted in recent
mesoanalyses and the ARX VWP) remains favorable for a tornado or two
with any sustained semi-discrete supercell. Storm interference has
also tended to limit the hail threat to some extent, though moderate
buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support large
hail potential through the evening. However, an increasingly linear
mode has been noted within the last hour as convection increases
along the cold front, which may lead to an increase in the damaging
wind potential, but a gradual decrease in tornado/hail risk.  

Some weakening has been noted across northwest WI, where storms have
outpaced the stronger low-level moisture return. Further south into
west-central WI/far southeast MN, warmer temperatures and somewhat
greater low-level moisture should help to sustain convection as it
moves eastward, though eventual weakening is expected downstream of
this area later tonight as MLCINH continues to increase. 

Some severe threat may spread east of WW 194 by 02Z. With the threat
expected to diminish with eastward extent later tonight, the need
for downstream watch issuance and/or local watch extension is
uncertain.

..Dean/Thompson.. 05/10/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   43709296 45389185 46409184 46379044 45688973 44528982
            43739027 43679064 43649214 43589302 43709296