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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon May 09 2022

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a few tornadoes are
all possible over the upper Mississippi Valley region today into
this evening.

...Discussion...
Nudged 10-percent tornado probabilities to north of the IA/MN border
and included a few counties north of MSP in the 10-percent tornado
area (ENH categorical).

..Smith.. 05/09/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Mon May 09 2022/

...Synopsis...
Recent surface analysis placed a low over eastern SD, with a dryline
extending south-southwestward across eastern NE, central KS, far
western OK, and into the TX Permian Basin. A cold front also extends
southwestward from this low across central NE, far northwest KS, and
into southeast CO.

This surface low is forecast to move northeastward throughout the
day, reaching northwestern MN by the early afternoon and western
Ontario by this evening. The attendant cold front is expected to
sweep eastward, and by 00Z this front will likely extend southward
from western Ontario across central MN and then back southwestward
across IA into central KS. This front will act as the impetus for
thunderstorms as it interacts with the moist and buoyant air mass
across the Upper MS Valley.

...Upper MS Valley...
Ongoing thunderstorm cluster moving across northern WI is expected
to continue progressing northeastward for the next few hours.
Downstream buoyancy will likely remain high enough for storm
persistence, with at least some chance of isolated hail and/or
damaging wind gusts reaching as far east as western portions of
Upper MI.

As the surface low mentioned in the synopsis moves northeastward, a
moist low-level air mass will advect northward. As a result, low 70s
dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of the approaching front
across southern MN, with upper 60s dewpoints reaching into central
MN. This low-level moisture co*bined with temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s will result in strong instability across the region.
Convective initiation appears likely as the front interacts with
this buoyancy, although the warm temperatures aloft (possibly around
-8 or -9 deg C at 500 mb this afternoon) and background rising
heights could limit the overall coverage.
 
Vertical shear will also be quite strong over the region, and the
overall environment supports supercells capable of all severe
hazards, including very large hail and tornadoes, with any storms
that do develop. Highest probabilities for supercells appears to be
confined to a fairly limited spatial area centered over the southern
MN/west-central WI border vicinity.