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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES....
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

*Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions
are again expected Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
the central and northeastern NM onto the southern High Plains.*

...Central into northeastern NM, the Panhandles, and southeastern
CO...
Changes to the outlook include an expansion of the Extremely
Critical area northwestward along the Raton Mesa into portions of
southeastern CO. Higher confidence in terrain aided gusts in excess
of 35 mph has developed suggesting the potential for high-end
critical to extremely critical conditions for a few hours Monday
afternoon.

Farther east across portions of the OK/TX Panhandles, confidence in
sustained and gusting surface winds reaching Extremely Critical
criteria is lower as the upper jet is forecast to retreat
northwestward through the day. The greatest potential for
wind-dominated fire growth appears to remain closer to the corridor
of maximum surface winds farther northwest. However, very dry
surface conditions and occasional stronger gusts may still support a
few hours of high-end critical and locally extremely critical
farther east where fuels remain quite dry. The Extremely Critical
area was trimmed westward to account for the greater model
consensus.

..Lyons.. 05/08/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sun May 08 2022/

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing will prevail across the western and central
U.S., with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the northern
Plains and a second, less pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on
the Rockies tomorrow/Monday. The approach of this second impulse
will encourage surface low development across the central/southern
High Plains, supporting another dangerous day of dry/windy
conditions conducive to rapid wildfire spread across the
Southwest/southern High Plains.

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Similar to today, boundary-layer mixing and gradient flow will
encourage the development of widespread 20+ mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH across much of
the Southwest into the southern High Plains tomorrow, warranting
both the maintenance and expansion of Elevated/Critical highlights.
Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of 25+ mph sustained
winds (with higher gusts) overlapping with 10 percent RH (perhaps
locally lower in spots) and anomalously dry fuels, promoting
dangerous conditions supporting extreme fire behavior. Extremely
Critical highlights were introduced where the most volatile surface
meteorological conditions and receptive fuels will coincide for at
least a few hours Monday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...