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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun May 08 2022

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated late-day storms may develop from portions of Iowa into
adjacent western Wisconsin, where local risk for hail/damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado, may evolve.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue across the West. Within this
broader flow, a shortwave trough will pivot into the upper Midwest
and strengthen with time. Coincident with the shortwave trough, a
surface cyclone will deepen and move trough the eastern Dakotas into
parts of northwestern Minnesota by the afternoon. A cold front will
overtake a dryline in the Plains. Ahead of this front, a narrow warm
sector is expected to develop in Minnesota, Iowa, and western
Wisconsin. A few strong to severe storms may develop during the
afternoon in these areas.

...Upper-Mississippi Valley Region...
A conditional risk for severe weather will exist for south-central
Iowa into west-central Wisconsin tomorrow. Dewpoints ahead of the
approaching cold front are expected to reach into the mid/upper 60s
F. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, this will support
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE into parts of Minnesota to around 2500-3000
J/kg into central Iowa. Effective shear of 40-50 kts will support
organized storms capable of large hail and damaging winds, should
they develop. Given sufficient low-level veering winds, a low-end
tornado threat is possible with initial storms. Given the position
of the surface low and shortwave trough displaced to the north,
forcing for ascent will generally be weak. Should boundary-layer
mixing reduce CIN enough, a few storms could develop along the
front. Shear vectors will have enough co*ponent across the boundary
that initial storms would be discrete. However, relatively weak
anvil-level winds and an increasingly boundary-parallel shear vector
with time would mean upscale growth by early evening.

..Wendt.. 05/08/2022