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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS....

*Long duration, critical to extremely critical fire weather
conditions possible Sunday*

...Northeastern into central New Mexico...
As southwesterly flow aloft increases over the Desert Southwest
early Sunday, an embedded shortwave trough and 50-70 kt mid-level
jet are progged to move eastward out of the Four Corners and cross
the southern/central Rockies Sunday. Within a broad area of very dry
and windy conditions across the Southwest and southern High Plains,
a corridor of enhanced low-level flow (30-40 mph and higher gusts)
appear likely to develop across portions of central and eastern NM
early Sunday. The strong winds will likely remain in place through
much of the day and into the night Sunday, with the potential for
strong mountain wave activity to support extreme gusts through the
higher terrain gaps. As the upper jet continues to sag southward
across much of northern New Mexico Sunday, strong down sloping and
warm temperatures will support diurnal minimum RH values from the
low teens to single digits. While RH maybe somewhat greater within
the higher terrain where temperatures will be cooler, very dry fuels
remain in place across much of the Sangre de Cristos and central
Highlands of NM with ERC values in the 95-98th+ percentile range.
Large fire activity has already been noted in may of these areas
over the past several weeks, lending high confidence to volatile
fuel states. Given the extremely dry fuels, expected/extended strong
winds and warm/dry conditions, Extremely Critical highlights have
been added to portions of northeastern New Mexico.

..Lyons.. 05/07/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022/

...Synopsis...
The next and perhaps more potent round in a series of significant
fire weather days will take place tomorrow/Sunday across the
Southwest into the southern High Plains as the western U.S. upper
trough further amplifies and overspreads the Southwest with 60-80 kt
mid-level flow. The surface mass response will be the development of
another cyclone across the southern High Plains, with widespread
25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (and higher gusts)
coinciding with 5-15 percent RH tomorrow afternoon. Critical
highlights have been introduced across much of New Mexico into the
southern High Plains, where the very dry/windy conditions will
overlap with critically dry fuels. Given the anomalously dry fuels
amid an exceptional drought and the very strong winds/gusts, at
least locally Extremely Critical conditions are expected. The
Critical highlights introduced this outlook are considered high-end.
An Extremely Critical area may be delineated in future outlooks if a
coherent area of overlapping 30+ mph winds, under 10 percent RH, and
the driest fuels beco*es evident.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...