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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across parts of the middle Missouri
Valley Sunday night and pose at least some risk of producing severe
hail.

...Synopsis...
After advancing offshore of the mid/southern Atlantic Seaboard by
12Z Sunday, amplified mid-level troughing within a southern branch
of split mid-latitude westerlies appears likely to beco*e less
progressive during this period.  It appears that upstream ridging
will build  to its west and northwest, as a number of short waves
migrate through large-scale troughing across the eastern Pacific
through the Great Plains, and an embedded digging perturbation may
contribute to the evolution of a deepening mid-level low offshore of
the southern Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday.

An influx of cooler and/or drier lower/mid tropospheric air will be
maintained across much of the eastern U.S. either side of the
Appalachians into the Florida Peninsula and adjacent eastern Gulf of
Mexico.  However, a southerly low-level return flow likely will be
maintained beneath the ridging building along an axis to the
north-northeast of a prominent mid-level high centered over southern
Mexico.

This will occur as a strong jet continues to propagate through the
base of the broad larger-scale mid/upper troughing to west.  It
appears that this will include a 100+ kt speed maximum around 500 mb
progressing inland of the California coast, preceded by at least a
couple of other jet streaks.  One may be in the process of shifting
north-northeast of the middle Missouri Valley early Sunday, followed
by a more vigorous perturbation later in the period.  

Models indicate that the latter impulse will be acco*panied by
significant surface cyclogenesis, from the lee of the Front Range by
late Sunday afternoon into the middle Missouri Valley by late Sunday
night.  However, it appears that a plume of warm elevated
mixed-layer air advecting north-northeastward across much of the
southern and central Great Plains, toward the Upper Midwest by early
Sunday, will be maintained and reinforced through Sunday and Sunday
night across the evolving potentially unstable warm sector.

...Parts of southern Great Plains...
Models indicate that the environment may beco*e conditionally
supportive of severe thunderstorms, including supercells, within a
narrow corridor along a sharpening dryline across parts of the Texas
Edwards Plateau and Big Country into central Oklahoma by late Sunday
afternoon.  It appears that CAPE will beco*e rather large in the
presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, but forcing to
overco*e the mid-level inhibition is unclear and is likely to remain
weak, resulting in minimal probabilities for sustained thunderstorm
development.

...Mid Missouri Valley/northern Great Plains...
Generally weak, to locally modest, boundary-layer destabilization in
the presence of strong deep-layer shear may result in isolated to
widely scattered strong thunderstorm development across much of the
region late Sunday afternoon and evening.  However, more prominent
forcing for large-scale ascent (aided by strong lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection) developing across the southern and
eastern South Dakota vicinity by late Sunday night appears to
provide the best chance for strong thunderstorm development, in the
presence of more substantive destabilization.  This may be mostly
rooted in elevated moisture return, but forecast soundings indicate
that shear, even for storms based in the 850-700 mb layer, will be
conducive to supercells with the potential to produce large hail.

..Kerr.. 05/07/2022