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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 AM CDT Sat May 07 2022

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
co*plex evolution of a western U.S. trough is expected to occur
through the medium-range period.  Model differences beco*e
increasingly apparent with time as the system shifts slowly eastward
across the western and into the central U.S. through the period. 
This co*plexity and the associated differences in solutions from the
various models hint at low predictability and thus a lack of
confidence in areally highlighting areas of severe-weather
potential.

On Day 4/Tuesday, while the trough remains over the West, ridging
over the Plains should limit convection/severe risk overall.  Some
risk is evident over the upper Mississippi Valley area once again,
near a surface baroclinic zone progged to continue lingering across
the area.  Once again, the most likely scenario would be with storms
to the cool side of the boundary, given warm-sector capping.  At
this time, risk does not appear sufficient to warrant an areal
highlight.

Slightly greater risk may evolve however over the southern High
Plains vicinity.  Here, models forecast that a subtle cyclonic
disturbance will move northeastward out of Mexico, contributing to
ascent along a dryline likely to evolve as another day of strong
heating/mixing is expected across the region.  Though deep-layer
shear may remain a bit marginal, moderate, high-based CAPE should be
sufficient for a few stronger storms -- and some/associated
wind/hail risk.

Beyond Day 4, a gradual/piecemeal eastward advance of the western
U.S. upper system is expected.  While areas of increased
severe-weather potential will likely acco*pany the system's advance,
at this time will not attempt to highlight any specific areas of
heightened risk.