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Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of northeast Oregon into extreme southeast
Washington

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070111Z - 070215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail/damaging
gusts may acco*pany the more intense storms. A brief tornado cannot
be co*pletely ruled out. A WW issuance is unlikely given the very
isolated/marginal nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...MRMS and KPDT radar data shows a modest uptick in the
intensity of thunderstorms ahead of a surface lee-trough axis as a
mid-level wind maximum overspreads the Pacific Northwest. MRMS
guidance shows that a storm west of PDT may be producing marginal
severe hail, and recent reports suggest a possible tornado may have
also occurred in Umatilla County within the past hour. These storms
are developing amid a cool surface airmass, but with steep mid-level
lapse rates contributing to modest buoyancy in the area. The passage
of the lee trough within co*plex terrain across northeast OR has
also fostered ample low-level vertical oriented vorticity. As such,
a couple more strong to severe storms may support brief instances of
marginally severe hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps an additional
brief tornado before nocturnal cooling/boundary layer stabilization
sets in.

..Squitieri.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON   44632024 45651972 46431879 46701773 46381701 45741649
            45181646 44691680 44251741 44151809 44071878 44211954
            44632024