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Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Virginia into
central and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 187...

Valid 070028Z - 070200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 187 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 0187 and
is expected to persist for a couple more hours before gradually
weakening. Large hail and damaging gusts remain the primary threats,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data shows relatively widespread
strong to severe thunderstorms in progress across much of central
VA, southward into much of central and eastern NC. Many of these
storms are multicells/transient supercells with a history of severe
hail/wind gusts and very isolated tornadoes. These storms are moving
over an airmass characterized by surface temperatures around 70-75F,
contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, nocturnal cooling
has begun given sunset, and the central NC/VA storms are progressing
towards eastern NC/VA, where a convectively overturned airmass
exists due to earlier storms. As such, the severe threat is expected
to gradually wane through the evening. In the immediate term, any of
the more robust storms in progress will remain capable of producing
all facets of severe, with the best chance of a tornado remaining
with storms that most favorably interact with the warm front.

..Squitieri.. 05/07/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...
GSP...

LAT...LON   34557825 34637946 34818032 35188051 37348136 37468131
            37588119 37828094 38487922 37977707 37797680 37797679
            37507644 36917600 36917599 36917599 36637589 36587587
            36147574 36117574 36097574 36097574 35917581 35667601
            34877669 34847676 34557825 34557825