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Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...northwestern South Carolina into western North
Carolina and southwest Virginia and extreme northeast Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...

Valid 062229Z - 070000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 186.
Damaging gusts may be the main threat as storms continue to merge
into a line, though an instance or two of severe hail or a tornado
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A 1000 mb surface low continues to track eastward from
central KY, with widespread thunderstorm development continuing east
of the low's track. Over the past few hours, multicells and
transient supercells have gradually merged into one or more squall
lines, especially from extreme southwest VA to the TN/NC border.
These storms are progressing eastward into an increasingly
warmer/moister airmass, with dewpoints increasing from the upper 50s
to mid 60s F, contributing to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 50+ kts of 500 mb
flow are also grazing the region from the south, supporting 40+ kts
of effective bulk shear (per latest RAP forecast soundings) and
continued potential for storm organization. The storms will pose a
damaging gust and marginal severe hail threat over the next couple
of hours, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. Storms appear like
they will approach the eastern bounds of Tornado Watch 186 by 00Z.

..Squitieri.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON   34748079 34938190 35268255 35858288 36708293 37278204
            37288140 36908088 36278060 35528035 34748079