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Mesoscale Discussion 0676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Areas affected...portions of central/southern GA into the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...

Valid 061922Z - 062115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes remain possible,
mainly across the eastern half of WW 185. A downstream watch may
also be needed into portions of eastern GA and SC in the next couple
of hours.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms continue to shift
east/northeast across eastern portions of Tornado Watch 185 on the
nose of stronger midlevel drying noted in water vapor imagery.
Low-level winds have veered across much of AL into western and
north-central GA and dewpoints are rapidly falling across these
areas. Convection across the FL Panhandle and southern GA has been
developing along an outflow boundary from early morning convection
amid moderate instability/shear. These clusters have been somewhat
messy, but with periods of better organization and modest rotation
noted. As these storms continue to track northeast around 40 kt,
damaging gusts will be the most likely hazard. Region VWP data does
indicate at least modestly enlarged low-level hodograph given
increasing wind speeds with height in the surface to 3 km layer. If
any storms can beco*e more discrete and track more easterly, an
increase in tornado potential will ensue.

Downstream from the cluster of storms over central GA toward the
Savannah River and Downstate SC, severe potential is increasing. 19z
SPC Mesoanalysis data indicates that MLCIN has eroded across eastern
GA and is rapidly weakening toward coastal SC. While effective shear
magnitudes, co*bined with moderate instability would support a
continued severe threat with eastward extent, large-scale ascent
remains somewhat weak and will continue to lift northeast of the
area. Nevertheless, any storms that develop would be capable of
strong gusts and perhaps a tornado given very moist low-levels and
modest 0-1 km SRH. A watch may be needed within the hour downstream
of WW 185.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30238597 30668565 31228474 31988407 32758360 33298311
            33448286 33698196 33598115 33478084 32938050 32468044
            32048061 31258139 30658231 30388279 29738362 29868385
            29878427 29548483 29558522 29698549 30018595 30238597