Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central and
southern parts of the Florida Peninsula Saturday, as well as over
portions of South Dakota and Nebraska Saturday evening and
overnight. An isolated severe storm may occur over north-central
Texas late in the day.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will gradually weaken as it moves toward the East
Coast on Saturday, with moderate midlevel wind speed across FL
around the base of the trough. Low pressure will exist over eastern
VA into NC during the day, with westerly surface winds providing
drying conditions across SC, GA and northern FL. Strong heating and
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will remain over the FL Peninsula,
contributing to isolated daytime storms.

To the west, a large-scale upper trough will expand across much of
the West, with tight midlevel thermal gradient from the Great Basin
into the northern Plains. Strong southwest flow aloft will exist
from the central Rockies into the northern Plains, with a deepening
surface trough along the length of the High Plains by 00Z. Southerly
low-level winds will maintain a narrow moist plume across the
Plains, aided by a 50+ kt low-level jet overnight.

Elsewhere, a dryline will develop from central into northwest TX,
with hot and unstable conditions nearby.

...FL...
A west-east oriented line of showers and thunderstorms may be
ongoing Saturday morning as a weak boundary shifts south across the
Peninsula. Although low-level winds will be westerly, deep-layer
shear may favor strong to locally severe cells within the line, or
support new development as outflow propagates south. Strong heating
will maintain an uncapped air mass, and although dewpoints will
likely mix lower, instability will support marginal hail or wind
gusts through afternoon. 

...NE and SD...
Strengthening southerly winds will result in low-level theta-e
advection across NE and into SD during the day, with good heating
across the western Dakotas and NE. Scattered storms are expected to
form after 21Z, with strong deep-layer shear supporting a hail and
wind threat through late evening. A capping inversion may play a
role in limiting severe storm coverage, but a categorical upgrade
could be needed in later outlooks as predictability increases.
Isolated supercells may occur within the narrow uncapped zone.

...A small part of north-central TX...
Very strong heating will lead to temperatures over 100 F along a
dryline, with low 70s F dewpoints within the moist plume to the
east. Convergence along the dryline and overall lift will be subtle
but an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out during the peak
heating hours. MLCAPE will likely exceed 4000 J/kg, with generally
weak shear profiles. If a storm can form here, it will likely move
very little, and could locally produce damaging hail and perhaps a
microburst.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2022