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Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments. The
Elevated area across portions of the southern Great Basin was
expanded slightly northward to where higher confidence in sustained
15 mph surface winds and lower surface RH exists. Otherwise, see the
prior discussions for additional information.

..Lyons.. 05/06/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/

...Synopsis...
Stronger mid-level flow will gradually overspread the Rockies today
as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Interior West. Gradient
winds from a surface lee trough across the northern Rockies, along
with downslope flow across the Southwest, will promote dry and
breezy conditions supporting modest potential for wildfire spread.

...Northern Rockies...
Gradient surface flow will increase through the afternoon,
particularly across northern Montana, where a well-mixed boundary
layer will support RH at or just below 25 percent amid 20-30 mph
sustained westerly surface winds. Some of the latest forecast fuel
guidance suggests that regional ERCs may approach the 90th
percentile in spots. The dry and windy conditions atop fuels
receptive to fire spread warrant the introduction of Elevated
highlights this outlook. While precipitation is expected later in
the evening, an isolated thunderstorm could develop during the
afternoon. Any lightning strikes that occur away from storm cores,
in windy conditions, and within a drier fuel bed may easily support
wildfire ignitions. 

...Southwest into the southern High Plains...
Downslope flow amid a well-mixed boundary layer will encourage
patches of 15 mph sustained west-northwesterly surface winds across
portions of the Southwest. While the overall surface wind field is
expected to marginally support wildfire spread, RH is expected to
drop into the single digits on a near widespread basis, and where
fuels are critically dry. As such, an Elevated area was introduced
where surface winds will most likely exceed 15 mph on a more
frequent basis.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...