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Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...Front Range and southeastern Colorado...
Recent guidance has trended drier and windier across much of eastern
CO and the Front range behind a strengthening lee low and
acco*panying surface trough. Hi-Res and ensemble guidance now
suggest widespread winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely
into the lee of the central Rockies. Despite some concerns with
recent rainfall and greening fuels over this area, ongoing seasonal
moisture deficits suggest fuels overall remain receptive to fire
starts/spread. The potential for critical fire weather conditions
appears likely enough to warrant an extension of the Critical area
northward across much of eastern/southeastern CO. 

Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains valid with only minor
adjustments for the latest High-Res guidance. Please see the
previous discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 05/06/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022/

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will further amplify while traversing the
southern Rockies tomorrow/Saturday, with stronger mid-level flow
overspreading a dry boundary layer across the Southwest into the
southern High Plains. The surface mass response will be cyclone
development across the central High Plains, leading to widespread
20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly winds across much of Arizona
into New Mexico, eastern Colorado, and western Texas, delineated by
Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been introduced
where confidence is highest in stronger winds coinciding with
single-digit RH for several hours atop critically dry fuels.
Expansion of Critical highlights may be needed in later outlooks
across Texas and southeast Colorado if stronger surface winds beco*e
evident in future guidance.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...