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Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Fri May 06 2022

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A rather co*plex upper-level flow pattern -- with what appears to be
a high degree of inherent lack of predictability -- is anticipated
across the U.S. during the medium range.  

On Day 4/Monday, a short-wave trough embedded within
southwesterly/cyclonic flow over the Plains is forecast to shift
northward into Manitoba/western Ontario.  In the wake of this
feature, mid-level height rises will occur across the central and
northern Plains as ridging begins to expand westward.  With a rather
co*plex/evolving surface pattern over the Plains, areas of
concentrated convective potential remain difficult to discern.  With
that said, will maintain 15% probability across the upper
Mississippi Valley vicinity, where elevated/nighttime storms may
evolve near the nose of an evolving southerly low-level jet.  Hail
would be the primary severe risk.

Farther south, daytime temperatures are forecast to rise into the
90s across the southern Plains -- particularly across Texas where
temperatures are expected to exceed 100 degrees in some areas.  This
heating/deep boundary-layer mixing will likely result in development
of a few high-based, late-afternoon thunderstorms.  While deep-layer
flow will remain somewhat weak, steep lapse rates aloft will
contribute to moderate CAPE, and thus a couple of the strongest
storms may produce locally damaging wind gusts and/or large hail. 
Given the anticipated, isolated nature of the convection, a 15% risk
area will not be initiated.

Day 5/Tuesday, upper ridging is progged to expand westward across
the Plains, as the western trough makes little eastward progress. 
While isolated storms will likely occur -- including farther
westward across the southern Plains in another deeply mixed but
unstable environment, organized severe weather is not currently
anticipated.

By Day 6, the upper trough over the West is expected to begin an
eastward advance.  However, models differ substantially with the
timing and character of this progression, and as such,
severe-weather potential remains similarly uncertain through the
remainder of the period.