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Topic: SPC May 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (Read 60 times) previous topic - next topic

SPC May 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC May 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

[html]SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
     
Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue May 03 2022

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS...SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may persist across parts of
the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians this evening. Isolated hail
may also be possible along a small portion of the Rio Grande Valley
in southwest Texas this evening, and the southern High Plains
overnight.

...Ohio Valley into the Appalachians...
A couple bands of thunderstorms persist early this evening across
parts of central/eastern OH/KY into the Appalachians. While this
activity may pose an isolated threat for mainly strong/gusty winds
in the short term given the enhanced mid-level flow present, the
thermodynamic environment should beco*e increasingly marginal with
time as nocturnal cooling co*mences.

...Rio Grande Valley in Southwest Texas...
A few thunderstorms have developed this evening over the higher
terrain in northern Mexico. The 00Z sounding from DRT shows a rather
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic profile for supercells.
However, this convection has generally been propagating very slowly
southeastward over the past couple of hours. It appears increasingly
unlikely that any thunderstorms will be able to cross into southwest
TX this evening before convective inhibition beco*es prohibitively
strong. Still, will maintain low severe probabilities for a small
portion of this region along and very near the border.

...Southern High Plains...
Most short-term guidance has trended away from any convection
occurring in the low-level warm advection regime across northwest TX
overnight. Even so, it remains possible that isolated thunderstorms
may develop in the last few hours of the period as MUCAPE beco*es
maximized over this region. If any convection can form, it would be
capable of producing large hail given the strong deep-layer shear
forecast.

..Gleason.. 05/04/2022


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Source: SPC May 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html)