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Mesoscale Discussion 0625
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Areas affected...southern ID

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 022041Z - 022315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated strong to locally severe storms will
increase during the next couple hours. Watch issuance will not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...As a co*pact midlevel low evident in water vapor
imagery continues east-southeastward across parts of the Pacific
Northwest, strongly diffluent flow aloft in the left exit region of
an acco*panying speed maximum will support increasing large-scale
ascent across parts of southern ID. Very cold temperatures aloft
(500-mb temps near -20C) will result in steepening midlevel lapse
rates amid elongated midlevel hodographs. Scattered convective
development is ongoing across western ID, and as this activity
spreads east-northeastward amid the strengthening large-scale
ascent, a modest uptick in coverage and intensity will be possible
through the afternoon. Isolated instances of large hail and locally
strong gusts will be the primary concerns. Watch issuance will not
be needed owing to the localized/marginal nature of the threat.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...

LAT...LON   42321526 42551601 42851609 43221626 43921619 44361600
            44651523 44501414 43811280 42571247 42111288 42201381
            42321526