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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

[html]SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
         
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook 
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0936 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...

The ongoing forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
needed based on recent rainfall reports, morning surface
observations, and trends in the latest hi-res guidance. Fire weather
concerns remain most likely across central to southern NM this
afternoon where RH values are already near or below 15% and westerly
winds are increase to 15-20 mph. To the east across the TX
Panhandle, MRMS rainfall estimates show several swaths of 0.10+
inches of rainfall from last night's thunderstorms. While critical
conditions are possible across much of the TX Panhandle (including
along and north of the I-40 corridor and possibly into northwest
OK), the Elevated risk area is limited to the local rainfall
minimums where fuels are likely still receptive. A cold front is
noted across eastern CO/western KS in morning surface observations,
and will likely reach the I-40 corridor with gusty northerly winds
by around 00 UTC.

..Moore.. 05/02/2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Mon May 02 2022/

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move into the southern Plains today. Farther
west, another shortwave trough will move into the Great Basin. At
the surface, a cyclone will deepen in the Texas Panhandle before
moving northeastward through the day. A cold front will eventually
move southward into the High Plains region.

...New Mexico...
Despite weaker mid-level winds, critical fire weather is possible
during the afternoon due to the strong surface pressure gradient.
Westerly winds will reach 20+ mph in some parts of central and
southern New Mexico. The airmass will remain quite dry and RH will
fall to 10-15%.

...Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin...
Critical meteorological conditions are possible in the Panhandle and
South Plains. However, scattered thunderstorms on Sunday evening
have produced rainfall across the region, particularly in the
Panhandle. Highlights have been adjusted to account for
rain-impacted fuels. Localized fire weather concerns are still
possible in those areas, however.

...Southern Nevada...
With the approaching trough, southerly/southwesterly winds will
increase ahead of a Pacific boundary. Fuels that have beco*e
critically dry will promote large fire potential. Winds of 15-20 mph
will be co*mon, but isolated higher speeds are possible. RH should
generally range from 15-20% during the afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


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Source: SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook (http://ht**://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html)