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Mesoscale Discussion 0619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of central/north TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

Valid 020444Z - 020645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe hail and wind will continue
overnight. Local watch extension or new downstream watch issuance
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, several strong thunderstorms are ongoing
across parts of central and north TX, including a long-lived
supercell moving into Mills County. A gradual weakening trend has
been noted over the last hour, likely due in part to increasing
MLCINH across the region. However, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and
effective shear of 40+ kt will continue to support a threat of hail
and locally damaging wind in the short term. 

The evolution of convection later tonight remains uncertain. A
strong southerly low-level jet is observed on the latest FWD VWP,
but most guidance suggests that the strongest low-level moisture
transport will be focused further north into Oklahoma later tonight,
in conjunction with a northward-moving warm front. As a result,
storms across central and north TX may tend to decrease in coverage
and intensity overnight, with elevated redevelopment focused further
north into parts of OK. However, boundary-layer
cooling/stabilization may be relatively slow overnight, due to rich
boundary-layer moisture along/south of the warm front. This may
allow ongoing storms to persist east of WW 170, especially if any
organized upscale growth occurs. As a result, local watch extension
or new downstream watch issuance may be needed in order to cover the
severe threat into the overnight hours.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30609795 30789899 31779926 32419945 33059915 33599831
            33529748 33359681 32679655 31769667 31239707 30609795