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Mesoscale Discussion 0616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Northwest TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 168...

Valid 020057Z - 020230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 168 continues.

SUMMARY...Some upscale growth of ongoing storms is possible with
time, with a severe threat potentially spreading into parts of north
Texas. Downstream watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...At 0045Z, an intense supercell is moving eastward
across Scurry County, TX, with additional convection co*ing up to
the east and southeast of this cell. This recent additional
development appears to be ongoing near the northern edge of the
richer low-level moisture, which will continue moving gradually
northward tonight. In the near term, the ongoing supercell and any
new convection that can beco*e established will pose a threat of
very large hail, given the presence of moderate MLCAPE and favorable
deep-layer shear. In addition, some tornado threat will persist over
the next 1-2 hours, as low-level shear and moisture continue to
increase with time, though increasing MLCINH may mitigate the
tornado threat to some extent. 

Given the potential for the severe threat to spread into a larger
portion of north TX later tonight, watch issuance is possible
downstream of WW 168.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/02/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   33160073 33299998 33379944 33399907 32979866 32349841
            31849879 31460046 32030107 32260119 33160073