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Mesoscale Discussion 0614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of west TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 168...

Valid 012247Z - 020015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 168 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail continues with ongoing
supercells. The tornado threat may increase into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...At 2245Z, several supercells are ongoing across
portions of west TX, with recent reports of significant (greater
than 2" diameter) hail from both right- and left-moving cells.
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, moderate deep-layer shear, and long
hodographs will continue to support a threat of very large to
potentially giant hail with these cells. Left movers will continue
to move rapidly north-northeastward, while right-moving cells will
generally move much slower to the east or southeast across the
region this evening. 

A tornado was recently reported with the cell north of Fort
Stockton, and the tornado threat with right-moving cells will likely
increase into the early evening, as rich low-level moisture (as
observed on the 18Z DRT sounding) continues to advect into the
region, and 0-1 km SRH begins to increase in conjunction with a
strengthening low-level jet.

..Dean.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29100374 31240366 32010307 32860264 32890166 32560101
            31740081 30600107 29900135 29820189 29730243 29250276
            29020293 28930336 29100374