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Mesoscale Discussion 0609
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...eastern OH...far eastern KY...western WV...and far
western PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011909Z - 012115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat may increase during the next few hours
across parts of the area. Watch issuance appears unlikely at this
time.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective processing, visible
satellite loops show an increasingly agitated cumulus field
developing across east-central OH, where weak low-level convergence
is evident ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. As large-scale
ascent continues to overspread the area, isolated convection could
develop and spread eastward, where it would encounter moderate
surface-based instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and effective
shear near 45 knots. In the vicinity of a gradually lifting warm
front across the area, locally backed surface winds beneath
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft is resulting in elongated
hodographs with nearly 100 m2/s2 effective SRH in the pre-convective
environment. If convection can develop and persist, organized
multicells and transient supercell structures capable of locally
damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be possible, while a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Currently, confidence in storm
development is low, though trends will continue to be monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   39658289 40308265 40798249 41258238 41458221 41598184
            41778107 41638033 40308014 38508088 37718187 37708281
            37958331 38448338 38968329 39658289