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Mesoscale Discussion 0607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX and
the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 011804Z - 012030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a few tornadoes will increase as thunderstorms develop this
afternoon. Some of the very large hail could be 3 to 4+ inches in
diameter. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northward early
this afternoon in tandem with a 20-25 kt southeasterly low-level jet
across parts of west TX and vicinity. Diurnal heating of this moist
airmass and the presence of rather steep mid-level lapse rates
indicated on the 12Z MAF sounding are already supporting MLCAPE of
1500-2000 J/kg as of 18Z. Additional heating and surface dewpoints
generally increasing into the low to mid 60s will likely foster even
stronger instability by late afternoon, with MLCAPE of 2500-3500
J/kg possible. The east-southeasterly low-level upslope flow will
likely aid convective initiation across the higher terrain of
southeastern NM and west TX over the next couple of hours. A veering
and strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will
support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear, with considerable
speed shear noted at mid/upper levels in various NAM/RAP forecast
soundings across this region.

This favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will easily
support scattered supercells with an attendant threat for very large
hail. Some of the this hail could be 3 to 4+ inches in diameter
given the large reservoir of buoyancy that will be available,
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, and long/straight
hodographs in the 3-9 km layer. Although the low-level flow is
fairly modest at the moment, some strengthening of the southeasterly
low-level jet is forecast by early evening. As low-level hodographs
correspondingly increase/lengthen, there should be a risk for a few
tornadoes, especially along/near the northward-advancing warm front.
Severe/damaging winds could also beco*e a concern as supercells may
eventually congeal into small bowing clusters across parts of the
Edwards Plateau this evening. Observational trends will be closely
monitored for signs of convective initiation across west TX, and a
watch will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29410418 30880413 32450434 32830377 32940319 32880226
            32560101 32220017 31889956 31499919 31129917 30429938
            30269972 30230049 30050113 29740151 29790230 29690263
            29230284 28940316 29160377 29410418