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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop Monday over the southern and
central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A marginal
severe threat will also be possible across parts of west-central
Texas, western Tennessee Valley, and portions of southern Idaho.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Plains
tomorrow/Monday, encouraging surface low deepening near the Oklahoma
panhandle. A moist, buoyant airmass will be drawn northward across
portions of the southern Plains into the Ozark Valley through the
day. As instability increases with the onset of both diurnal heating
and northward moisture advection, thunderstorms are expected to
increase in both coverage and intensity along the warm front in the
Arklatex/Ozark regions, and ahead of the dryline from central Kansas
to central Texas tomorrow afternoon. All facets of severe will be
possible across the south-central U.S. In addition, enough buoyancy
is expected to develop ahead of a 500 mb speed max/surface
lee-trough across portions of southern Idaho to support a marginal
severe threat during the afternoon.

...Southern Plains...
A triple point is expected to beco*e established somewhere in
south-central Kansas by mid afternoon as a trailing dryline sharpens
across southwest Kansas into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas.
As earlier day precipitation and clouds depart the region by
afternoon, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will continue to mix northward
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, fostering widespread 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE amid 40-60 kts of effective bulk shear. In addition, a strong
low-level jet will also ramp up during the late afternoon to early
evening hours, contributing to long, curved hodographs in the lowest
2-3 km. A mix of supercells and bowing structures are expected in
proximity to the triple point, southward along the dryline by mid
afternoon, with convective coverage significantly decreasing from
central Oklahoma southward into Texas. Given the favorable
CAPE/shear parameter space and supercellular development, all severe
hazards are possible, with a couple of 2+ inch diameter hailstones
and strong tornadoes also possible. With time, storms along the
Kansas/Oklahoma border are expected to consolidate into an MCS,
where damaging gusts will beco*e a greater concern, especially as
storms approach southwestern Missouri.

...Texarkana into the Ozark Valley Region...
Some uncertainty exists regarding the northward placement of the
warm front tomorrow morning through the afternoon across portions of
the Red River Valley extending towards the central Mississippi
Valley given the presence of remnant convection from Day 1 storms.
Latest guidance consensus depicts a weaker mid-level impulse
preceding the primary 500 mb trough, which is poised to traverse the
Ozark Valley around 18Z. Given 60+ F dewpoints associated with the
warm front beneath steep lapse rates, 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid 30+
kts of effective bulk shear may promote multicellular and occasional
transient supercell structures from the Arklatex into the central
Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary
threats with these storms, though a tornado also cannot be ruled
out. Given the uncertainty of warm frontal placement, considerable
changes to the Category 1-2/Marginal-Slight risk probabilities may
be needed for future Day 1 outlooks.  

...Southern Idaho...
Thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to increase tomorrow
afternoon in proximity to the surface lee trough across portions of
southern Idaho, where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in
place. Enough 700-500 mb moisture will usher into the region to
promote 500+ J/kg MUCAPE given the presence of 8.5-9.0 C/km surface
to 500 mb lapse rates. While wind fields below 500 mb will not be
particularly strong (i.e. below 50 kts), the steep, deep-layer lapse
rates may promote efficient downward momentum transport and
efficient evaporative cooling to support a couple damaging gusts.
With a fair amount of buoyancy noted in the -20 to -30C layer, a
large hailstone also cannot be co*pletely ruled out, with a Category
1/Marginal risk introduced to address this threat.

..Squitieri.. 05/01/2022