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Mesoscale Discussion 0606
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Areas affected...Parts of west-central NC...southern VA...and far
northwest SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 011704Z - 011800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging
gusts and isolated large hail will increase between 18Z-21Z. A watch
will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery and regional VWP data shows
strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing large-scale ascent
overspreading the southern Appalachians, where shallow/elevated
convection is ongoing. Ahead of this activity, filtered diurnal
heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates in
conjunction with increasing positive low-level theta-e advection to
the south of a gradually lifting warm front draped across central
VA. As the pre-convective airmass continues to destabilize amid
strengthening southwesterly flow aloft, diurnally enhanced
convection should gradually increase in intensity and coverage as it
encounters surface-based effective inflow layer air.

Considering that large-scale ascent will generally remain modest and
deep-layer flow/shear will initially be oblique to the axis of
forcing, semi-discrete clusters of storms capable of isolated large
hail and damaging winds will be possible, with eventual upscale
growth favoring primarily damaging winds. A watch will likely be
needed this afternoon.

..Weinman/Hart.. 05/01/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON   36498123 36898063 37197993 37367939 37377858 37107813
            36437788 35747851 35247964 35008146 35198207 35528209
            35898183 36498123