Clearpost.online It's your post, so post it!

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High Plains
into central Texas, beginning around mid-afternoon and persisting
through tonight. Very large hail and a few tornadoes will be the
primary hazards.

...Southern Plains...
Current surface analysis shows a reservoir of rich low-level
moisture in place over south and central TX.  Southeasterly
low-level winds will transport this air mass northwestward, with
rapid moistening and destabilization of the boundary layer across
west TX and eastern NM this afternoon and evening. Relatively strong
heating and only a weak capping inversion is expected to lead to
several supercells developing across the area by mid-afternoon. 
Storms will first form along the retreating warm front from the
Permian Basin into the Hill Country.  Deep-layer shear profiles will
promote discrete supercell structures, while low-level winds are
sufficient for the risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and
evening.  However, very large hail is expected to be the primary
risk with storms in this corridor.

Later this afternoon and evening, the development of discrete storms
including supercells will occur farther north across the western TX
panhandle into northeast NM and even southeast CO.  These storms
will be in a drier boundary-layer environment, but very steep lapse
rates and the strength of the mid/upper level winds will be
conducive for very large hail formation and perhaps a tornado or
two.

...VA/NC...
Full sunshine is occurring this morning across much of southern VA
and northern NC, where dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s will
yield MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg.  Scattered thunderstorms
currently over the mountains of extreme southwest VA and east TN
will spread eastward and intensify this afternoon as they encounter
the unstable air.  This should lead to scattered strong to severe
storms, capable of damaging winds and hail.  Activity will track
eastward roughly along the NC/VA border through the early evening.

..Hart/Weinman.. 05/01/2022