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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF TX AND FAR EASTERN NM...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN VA AND
NORTHERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern High
Plains into central Texas, beginning around mid-afternoon and
persisting through tonight. Several tornadoes and very large hail
will be the primary hazards.

...Southern Great Plains...
High-quality Gulf moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios
around 16 g/kg per 12Z soundings is prevalent across much of south
TX. This moisture plume will be advected northwest in advance of a
substantial shortwave trough moving east from the Great Basin to the
southern Rockies. Scattered to numerous supercells are expected to
develop from mid-late afternoon within the upslope flow regime along
the eastern NM/west TX border area into the Trans-Pecos. 40-50 kt
effective shear will support significant severe hail as the primary
initial hazard. The tornado threat should also increase into the
early evening as low-level hodographs enlarge somewhat coincident
with further boundary-layer moistening. More isolated supercell
development should also occur along the west/east-oriented warm
front bisecting central TX with an attendant large hail/tornado
threat. With time this evening, several clusters with embedded
supercells should congeal into one or more MCSs and spread east from
west TX towards central TX and southwest OK. A mix of all severe
hazards appear possible, but overall coverage will diminish
overnight as instability wanes. 

...VA/NC to the Upper OH Valley...
Remnants of a small MCS over eastern KY/TN are progged by latest
guidance to spread east of the central Appalachians and emerge
across parts of the southern VA/NC Piedmont later today. While
surface dew points are currently only around the low 50s in this
region, some low-level moistening co*bined with robust
boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas into southern VA, should
support an increase in convective intensity this afternoon.
Deep-layer shear and mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but the
steepening low-level lapse rates could support a swath of strong
gusts producing scattered tree damage. 

In the wake of the early-day MCS, confidence is low in the degree of
convective coverage across the Upper OH Valley vicinity later this
afternoon. Guidance does suggest deep-layer shear will be stronger
owing to the closer proximity to the mid-level jet across the Mid-MS
to Lower OH Valley. However, forecast soundings indicate some
warming and especially drying near 700 mb. In addition, low-level
convergence will likely remain weak south of the OH/PA border area.
For these reasons the severe threat appears rather conditional west
of the Appalachians.

..Grams/Mosier.. 05/01/2022