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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours across the
southern High Plains. Isolated gusty winds/hail are also possible
across parts of the central Appalachians region during the daytime.

...Southern Plains...

Next in a series of short-wave troughs will dig southeast across the
Great Basin toward the southern Rockies by 02/12z. While notable
mid-level height falls will be confined to only a small portion of
the High Plains very late in the period, low-level warm advection
will prove instrumental in convective development, in addition to
surface heating.

Early this morning, low-level trajectories have beco*e a bit more
conducive across the western Gulf Basin/south TX for the transport
of higher-PW air into the southern Plains. Surface front appears to
have stalled from near SHV-Austin-southern Edwards Plateau region.
Surface dew points are notably higher across the coastal plain of TX
where values are in the lower 70s. While the timing of the
approaching short wave is very late in the period, 850mb flow will
gradually increase across southwest TX into the TX Panhandle where
LLJ is forecast to intensify by early evening, then expand/intensify
from northwest TX into central OK overnight. As the warm front
advances north across TX, considerable moistening/destabilization
will occur such that significant buoyancy will be noted near the
front as it surges back across the southern Plains in response to
the approaching trough. Earlier thoughts regarding significant
convection developing across the southern High Plains remain,
especially by late afternoon within a favorable upslope/moistening
regime; however, there is increasing concern that a few severe
thunderstorms could develop along/near the warm front. Forecast
sounding at 22z as far east as SEP is quite unstable with SBCAPE in
excess of 3000 J/kg with ample shear/SRH for supercells.
Late-evening hr** members exhibit considerable spread in convective
solutions, but high confidence in supercell development across the
High Plains remains. Wind profiles strongly favor supercells and
moistening boundary layer through the period will contribute to
destabilization advancing north through the night. Have opted to
extend ENH Risk into portions of west-central TX to account for
possible warm-frontal development, or an eastward expansion of
thunderstorm clusters off the High Plains.

Strong LLJ into OK during the overnight hours warrants increasing
severe probabilities into this portion of the plains as significant
destabilization will occur as moisture returns. NAM forecast
soundings across southern OK suggest buoyant near-surface based
parcels with MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Elevated supercells are
possible north of the warm front and hail can be expected.

...Central Appalachians Region...

Leading edge of Great Lakes trough is forecast to shift into OH by
late afternoon as 500mb speed max translates across southern OH
toward western PA. Most significant height falls are forecast north
of this jet but ample destabilization is also expected to develop
south across WV/western VA. Forecast soundings suggest a few
supercells could develop ahead of this feature and wind/hail are the
primary threats with convection that forms ahead of the surface
front.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/01/2022