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Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CDT Sun May 01 2022

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC WHICH NOW KEEPS HATCHED AREA INSIDE 10
PERCENT CONTOUR

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage
and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A
marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of
west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and
central High Plains on Monday, as a 45 to 60 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the base of the trough. At the surface,
a low will move southeastward into northwest Oklahoma as a cold
front advances southeastward across western Kansas and into western
Oklahoma. By afternoon, a dryline will setup from a frontal triple
point in western Oklahoma extending south-southwestward into
northwest and west-central Texas. A warm front will advance
northward across eastern Kansas and central Missouri. Surface
dewpoints across the moist sector will be in the mid 60s F, where
moderate instability is expected by afternoon. Convection is
forecast to initiate ahead of the cold front from south-central
Kansas into north-central Oklahoma during the late afternoon. Rapid
thunderstorm intensification should occur with several clusters of
strong to severe thunderstorms moving eastward from central and
northern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas during the early evening.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected further south-southwest along
the dryline into parts of northwest and west-central Texas.

The environment across the southern and central Plains may beco*e
very favorable for severe storms, depending upon early day activity
shifting eastward away from the region. NAM forecast soundings from
Wichita southward to Oklahoma City at 00Z/Tuesday are impressive
loaded gun soundings. MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 2000 to 3000
J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 50 to 60 knot. This is co*bined
with 700 to 500 mb lapse rates near 8.0 C/km, and 0-3 km storm
relative helicities of 450 to 500 m2/s2. This will be a high-end
parameter space very favorable for supercells with large hail, wind
damage and tornadoes. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible with the more intense supercell updrafts.
As low-level shear ramps up during the late afternoon and early
evening, tornadoes will be possible with the more intense
supercells. Model forecasts show a strong low-level jet response
across northeast Oklahoma. Supercells that develop to the west and
northwest of the low-level jet should be associated with a threat
for strong tornadoes, and an EF3+ tornado may occur. In addition,
wind damage will be possible with supercells, and with organized
short bowing line segments.

A severe threat should develop south-southwestward into northwest
Texas and west-central Texas to the east of the dryline, but
convective coverage will be more isolated there. Large hail and wind
damage would be possible with supercells that form in the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Ozarks/Western Tennessee Valley...
A warm front will advance northward across southern and central
Missouri during the day as an upper-level trough approaches from the
west. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front
as it advances. These storms could have a hail threat. As the warm
front moves north-northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley
during the evening, the airmass will remain unstable across the
Ozarks. Deep-layer shear should be strong enough for a severe
threat. Although supercells with isolated large hail will be
possible, bowing line segments may also develop with wind damage
potential. The severe threat should persist as strong to severe
clusters of storms approach from the west during the late evening
into the early overnight period.

..Broyles.. 05/01/2022