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Mesoscale Discussion 0601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Central/eastern AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165...

Valid 302341Z - 010115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 165
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and locally damaging wind will
continue this evening. A brief tornado is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete cells have evolved from southwest into
central AR, within a plume of strong buoyancy (MLCAPE greater than
2500 J/kg) along/ahead of a cold front. Moderate westerly midlevel
flow on the southern periphery of a deep midlevel low across the
upper Midwest is supporting effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient
for the maintenance of supercell structures. Hail and locally
damaging wind will continue to be a threat with the strongest cells
as they move eastward. Low-level flow is relatively weak and veered
on the LZK VWP, but somewhat stronger low-level flow/shear is noted
further east on the NQA VWP. A brief tornado was recently reported
south of Little Rock, and with favorable buoyancy and low-level
moisture in place, cells moving from central into eastern AR may
continue to pose a brief tornado threat this evening. 

With a very moist boundary layer in place across the region, only a
slow increase in MLCINH is expected with time, so storms will likely
persist into at least the mid evening, with a continued threat of
large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado.

..Dean.. 04/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33219358 34629241 35469153 35569092 35329042 34289098
            33649159 33229220 33099304 33109349 33219358