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Mesoscale Discussion 0599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0527 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Southeastern Missouri...southern Illinois...far
western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 164...

Valid 302227Z - 010030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 164 continues.

SUMMARY...A line of supercells will continue east from southeast
Missouri into southern Illinois late this afternoon. The environment
appears supportive of all severe hazards for the next 1-3 hours with
this activity. The need for a downstream watch appears low, but
trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A group of four supercells have intensified over the
last hour in southeastern Missouri. Regional radar has shown a
coincident modest increase in mid-level rotation with these storms.
The KPAH VWP shows a modest increase in low-level shear recently.
The low-level jet is also expected to increase across southern
Illinois this evening. So long as these storms can maintain
intensity, large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are
possible. Given downstream rain/cloud cover and mid-level ascent
shifting northeast with time, storm maintenance with eastward extent
remains questionable. Trends will continue to be monitored this
evening, but the need for an additional watch appears low currently.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37199082 37999014 38478911 38728816 38648787 38098770
            36878846 36748915 36729022 36899075 37199082