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Mesoscale Discussion 0592
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...southwest Wisconsin...portions of
western...central and northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 301732Z - 301930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch is likely by 19Z as storms form and
intensify through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway across the the Upper
Midwest as dewpoints have increased into the low 60s and
temperatures have warmed to near 70 amid broken clouds. The surface
pattern is co*plicated across the warm sector this afternoon. A
stationary front which extended from the occluded front across
Illinois this morning has started to lift north as a warm front. The
primary cold front extends from central Iowa across northwest
Missouri and eastern Kansas while the initial cold front has started
to wash out from southeast Iowa across central Missouri. The best
low-level moisture remains east of this weakening front and
therefore, the primary severe weather threat should remain east of
this feature. MLCIN has started to erode across eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois. A bit more moisture advection and/or heating
should be sufficient for storm development in the next 1 to 2 hours.
Mini supercells will be possible near the surface low where wind
profiles will also be favorable for low-level mesocyclone
organization and potential for a tornado or two. 

More robust storm development is expected across central Illinois
where greater destabilization is anticipated with sufficient backed
surface flow to support a tornado threat in addition to the threat
for large hail and damaging winds. 17Z surface analysis shows
temperatures 2 to 3 degrees above guidance indicating storm
development could occur slightly earlier than 12Z guidance
indicated.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON   43288915 42518862 41438826 40228826 39238865 39178918
            39349005 39469036 39699043 40439055 41419083 42499136
            42659116 42969100 43339011 43338961 43338929 43328927
            43288915