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Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRIDS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley/Midwest
towards the Ark-La-Tex. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail will be possible.

A deep occluded low is present today over IA, with the associated
cold front sweeping eastward across MO/AR, and the warm front
extending southeastward into parts of northern IL, IN, and eastern
KY.  The warm sector of the low is somewhat moist and marginally
unstable with dewpoints in the 50s to lower 60s.  Visible satellite
shows scattered breaks in the cloud cover, which will help to
further warm/destabilize the air mass and lead to multiple bands of
thunderstorms along/ahead of the front.

...WI/IL/IN...
Backed surface winds will likely be maintained through the afternoon
from southern IL northward into southern WI, where forecast
soundings show sufficient low/deep layer shear profiles for discrete
and semi-discrete convective modes.  This would favor the
development of a few supercells capable of hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes.  The main limiting factor for a more significant
tornado event appears to be limited moisture/CAPE.  These storms
will spread quickly northeastward today into a progressively more
stable environment, but locally damaging winds may continue to be a
threat into western IN this evening.

...AR/LA/TX...
Substantial low-level moisture is in place over the Arklatex region
today with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop, with coverage
decreasing with southwestern extent along the cold front.  Low-level
winds are more veered in this area than farther north, and mid-level
flow decreases rapidly south of central AR.  Nevertheless, strong
multicell or isolated supercell storms may form, capable of damaging
winds and hail through the evening.

..Hart.. 04/30/2022