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Mesoscale Discussion 0587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Areas affected...Far eastern KS into northwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 300105Z - 300200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and perhaps a tornado or two
will increase later tonight. Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...At 01Z, a mix of small bowing segments and embedded
supercells is ongoing across northeast KS. An evolution toward an
increasingly linear mode is expected with time, as a cold front
continues to overtake the ongoing storms. While lesser buoyancy and
increasing MLCINH will characterize the downstream environment
across northwest MO, an increasing low-level jet will help to
sustain convection, with moderate deep-layer shear continuing to
support organized structures. The linear mode will result in
primarily a damaging wind risk later tonight, though a tornado or
two will remain possible, as an increasing low-level jet maintains
strong low-level shear/SRH across the region. Watch issuance is
likely soon in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Edwards.. 04/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...to*...

LAT...LON   40499533 40639441 40549386 40099349 39509335 39029336
            38739360 38479399 38349445 38399467 38629495 39129510
            39609520 40499533