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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A co*plex and significant severe weather episode is expected to
continue tonight across the central Great Plains vicinity.

...01z Update...

Progressive short-wave trough has advanced across the central
Rockies and now extends across the NE Panhandle, along the CO/KS
border to near the latitude of the central TX Panhandle. Most
significant height falls/forcing will spread across the central
Plains toward the mid-MS Valley late tonight. Over the last few
hours, expanding clusters/supercells have evolved ahead of the short
wave over south-central NE into northeast KS. Substantial
precipitation shield is developing in the wake of what appears to be
a surging squall line from Madison County NE-York-Fillmore County
NE. As LLJ increases across eastern KS into southeast NE this
intensifying MCS should continue to expand as it surges toward the
MO River. Have expanded higher wind probabilities immediately ahead
of this activity across southeast NE to account for this organized
cluster.

More discrete supercells/clusters extend south across eastern KS
ahead of the dryline/cold front. With time frontal convection should
beco*e more pronounced as it surges into a more moist/buoyant
airmass north of the main mid-level jet core. Less certainty exists
regarding convection at lower latitudes (OK/TX). Several attempts at
sustained convection were noted along the dryline over OK earlier
this evening but loss of heating has exposed a weakly convergent
boundary that may struggle to focus thunderstorm activity. However,
thunderstorms are expected to evolve along the cold front over KS
later this evening and convection is expected to build southwest
along the surging front later tonight. Will maintain severe
probabilities for this scenario well after sunset.

..Darrow.. 04/30/2022