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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms associated with a threat for wind damage and
isolated large hail are possible on Saturday from the mid
Mississippi Valley northward into the western Great Lakes.  A couple
tornadoes may also occur from eastern Illinois into southern
Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over eastern NE and associated mid-level trough over
the lower MO Valley will gradually move to the middle to upper MS
Valley regions by daybreak Sunday, while a mid-level ridge over the
Great Lakes slowly moves east.  A surface cyclone will weaken/fill
as it migrates from southeast SD to southern MN during the period. 
An associated cold front will push east across a large part of the
Corn Belt with the trailing portion moving into northeast TX by
early evening.  

...Mid-Upper MS Valley...
An extensive corridor/broken bands of showers/thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing during the morning across the lower MO Valley and
mid MS Valley.  Strong southerly low-level flow will advect
increasing moisture into the mid MS Valley in wake of the earlier
warm-air-advection activity with weak to moderate destabilization
expected by early/mid afternoon immediately ahead of the front. 
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast by early/mid afternoon within a
region of strongly diffluent upper-level flow.  Forecast hodographs
will favor organized storm structures with the stronger updrafts,
including supercells.  The stronger storms will be capable of a
hail/wind risk.  It seems the greatest risk for a couple of
tornadoes will focus over parts of IL where models indicate greater
buoyancy/shear co*bination by late afternoon.  This activity will
weaken during the evening as it moves into parts of the western and
southern Great Lakes.

...Arklatex to the Rio Grande...
The aforementioned front will push southeast from western AR/eastern
OK during the morning into this region by the late afternoon.  An
initial band of showers/thunderstorms over parts of eastern
OK/western AR will weaken during the morning.  A co*posite boundary
will likely serve as the primary forcing mechanism with the mid- to
upper-level system gradually beco*ing increasingly displaced from
the region with time.  Nonetheless, diurnal heating will likely lead
to 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon on the periphery of a
steep lapse rate plume over TX and extending northeastward into the
lower OH Valley.  More recent model guidance indicates
isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms are possible along the boundary
from the Arklatex southwestward to the Rio Grande, especially
towards early evening.  There remains considerable uncertainty
regarding storm coverage/placement to the southwest of northeast TX.
Nonetheless, isolated large hail/wind will be the potential risks
with any sustained/vigorous storms.

..Smith.. 04/29/2022